After a usual progression, the monsoon is anticipated to take a brief pause, potentially halting its advance for the next 8-10 days.

And, this may cause a delay in its arrival over Northwestern regions of the country, weathermen said.

This interruption in rainfall progression could aggravate the existing heat wave conditions in North and Central India. It may also delay the planting of crucial oilseeds, pulses and cereals in these areas.

“After a regular progression, the monsoon is entering a hiatus. Not much advancement is anticipated over the next 8-10 days, leading to a delay in its onset over North India. This may result in extreme temperatures and heat waves in Delhi, UP, and Bihar,” Madhavan Rajeevan, a former secretary of the ministry of earth sciences and a renowned Indian monsoon expert, said on X.

However, Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather, said although the monsoon has entered a weak phase due to the cessation of cyclonic activities over the southern part of the country, it is expected to revive over Eastern India from June 15-16.

It will become active across the entire region up to East and Central Uttar Pradesh by June 22.

“This is just a temporary weakening of the monsoon surge, which is quite normal in any given year,” Palawat added.

A few years back, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised the normal monsoon onset and withdrawal dates over several centres in North and Central India.

According to the updated dates, the monsoon is now expected to reach the national capital around June 27, while previously, the normal onset date was June 23.

Similarly, the revised schedule indicates that the normal onset date over Agra is now June 30, whereas before it was June 23. Over Jaipur, the new normal onset date is July 1 from June 23.

Summer rains, crucial for driving economic growth in India, typically commences in the south around June 1 before spreading throughout the country by July 8. This schedule enables farmers to sow crops such as rice, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane.

In 2024, the monsoon arrived nearly two days earlier than expected in Maharashtra, home to the commercial capital of Mumbai. But its progress in central and northern states will be delayed by a few days.

The monsoon, the lifeblood of India’s nearly $3.5 trillion economy, brings almost 70 per cent of the rain needed to irrigate farms and replenish reservoirs and aquifers.

Without irrigation, nearly half of the farmlands in the world’s second-largest producer of rice, wheat, and sugar rely on the annual rains, which typically occur from June to September.

In India’s northern states, the maximum temperatures range between 42 degrees Celsius and 46 degrees Celsius, nearly 3-5 degrees Celsius above normal, according to IMD data.

Several regions in Asia, including India, are experiencing an unusually hot summer, a trend scientists attribute to human-driven climate change.

This month, in some places, New Delhi recorded its highest-ever temperature of 49.9 degrees Celsius, amid a water shortage.

Since the season began on June 1, India has received one per cent less rainfall than normal, according to the IMD.

First Published: Jun 12 2024 | 8:40 PM IST