India has spoken, and the result is both historic and surprising. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will return for a third term, albeit with less dominance than anticipated. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Narendra Modi, has secured 240 seats, falling short of the 272 needed for a majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha. Consequently, the BJP will rely heavily on its alliance partners.

The NDA has secured 292 seats in total, with the BJP as the largest party holding 240 seats. However, this number is insufficient for an outright majority, necessitating the support of alliance partners such as the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP).

In Bihar, JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar, who recently rejoined the NDA, won 12 seats, matching the BJP’s tally in the state but with fewer contested constituencies. 

In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP, under N Chandrababu Naidu, secured 16 seats, while the BJP won three. The NDA claimed 21 of the 25 seats in the state.

The JD(U) and TDP have 28 seats each, which is crucial to the alliance ahead of government formation.

Possibility of losing allies

With INDIA showing unexpected gains in the results, reports have surfaced indicating that leaders from the Opposition bloc are reaching out to Nitish Kumar and N Chandrababu Naidu.

The JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar has a history of switching sides, earning him the nickname “paltu ram”. He was aligned with the INDIA until January and was once considered a potential opposition Prime Minister candidate.

Currently, the BJP requires the support of the JD(U), the third-largest party in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), to form the government. Nitish Kumar will likely leverage this position to make significant demands from the BJP. However, given his record, his support is expected to keep the BJP on edge, making a stable government unlikely.

The TDP has previously allied with the NDA and the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). After joining the UPA in 2019, it rejoined the NDA in February this year.

N Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP has made a strong comeback in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly elections, with commendable performance in the Lok Sabha as well. Emerging as a kingmaker, Naidu is expected to demand several ministries, compelling the BJP to engage in extensive negotiations.

The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), now led by Chirag Paswan, son of the late Ram Vilas Paswan, has five Lok Sabha seats. Having been denied a Cabinet berth by the Modi government, Chirag Paswan could be swayed by the INDIA bloc if they are close to forming a government.

The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena has found itself on the defensive after winning fewer seats than the Uddhav Thackeray faction in Maharashtra, with seven and nine seats, respectively. There is a constant fear that some MPs might switch sides again and return to Thackeray, who is part of the INDIA bloc.

Challenges for the NDA if Allies stick

The BJP has previously managed coalition governments under Atal Bihari Vajpayee. However, handling unpredictable allies presents a new challenge for the party. If successful, the BJP will keep its partners together and form a government.

Nevertheless, the BJP might face difficulties in implementing some of its key reforms, such as the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and the “One Nation, One Poll” initiative.

The BJP has already implemented the UCC in Uttarakhand, with other BJP-ruled states pledging to follow. However, without an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, the BJP might have to delay these plans. Introducing simultaneous polls will also be challenging. Although the JD(U) supported simultaneous polls, the TDP had reservations.

In 2018, the TDP and BJP parted ways over Andhra Pradesh’s special status. It remains uncertain if Naidu will reintroduce this demand.

The opening of the Ram Mandir did not favour the BJP, as evidenced by their loss in Faizabad, which includes Ayodhya. This outcome might prompt the BJP to reconsider its plans for other disputed sites in Mathura and Kashi.

This uncertainty is also expected to impact the economy. According to Bloomberg, the party might struggle to enact stringent reforms regarding labour and land regulations.

First Published: Jun 05 2024 | 3:19 PM IST