The sex scandal allegedly involving Prajwal, who left for Germany early on April 27, provided ammunition to the Congress, which rules the state, to counter the BJP national leadership’s attacks on issues like “minority appeasement” and the murder of a Lingayat college girl Neha Hiremath in Hubballi allegedly by her estranged Muslim friend.

Top Congress leader Rahul Gandhi called Prajwal a “mass rapist” during a rally in Raichur on May 2, accusing the BJP leadership of being allegedly aware of the JD(S) MP’s alleged sex crimes when he was given a poll ticket by its NDA ally.

The sex scandal itself is however believed to have no bearing, on the ground, on the poll outcome in the three regions bound for Tuesday voting – the Lingayat-dominated Bombay Karnataka (five seats), the impoverished Hyderabad-Karnataka region (five seats), the agricultural central districts (three seats), and one coastal district, Uttara Kannada, which is known for being a Hindutva bastion.

Across these regions there seems to be an atmosphere of “strong anti-incumbency” against the 14 sitting BJP MPs, who are said to be entirely dependent on the Modi factor to sail through, but face challenges even in the pro-BJP Lingayat region of Bombay Karnataka as well as Uttara Kannada.

In Bombay Karnataka, the Modi factor coupled with the Lingayat community’s traditional support for the BJP is likely to deliver most of the five seats to the BJP with the Congress appearing to have an edge mainly in the Chikkodi seat.

In the Hyderabad Karnataka region, where livelihood concerns seem to have trumped nationalistic and religious identity issues, the Congress is seen to have an upper hand in at least three of the five seats due to its “pro-poor policies”.

The Gulbarga seat in Hyderabad Karnataka, where the prestige of Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge is at stake, is set to witness a tough fight as local issues involving caste pride have now gained precedence over the Kharge factor.

The three central Karnataka seats of Davangere, Haveri and Shivamogga will see close contests although the BJP is considered to have an edge in former chief minister B S Yediyurappa’s Shivamogga turf since the polls featuring Yediyurappa’s elder son B Y Raghavendra involves the prestige of the Lingayat strongman and his younger son B Y Vijayendra, the state BJP chief.

In Davangere and Shivamogga, the presence of rebel OBC candidates from the BJP – who may split the votes of the Kuruba community which is allied to Congress CM Siddaramaiah – would make the contests keener.

BJP rebel K S Eshwarappa has thrown his hat in the ring in Shivamogga.

The BJP’s former CM Basavaraj Bommai is contesting the Haveri seat while another ex-CM Jagadish Shettar is testing the ground in Belagavi as the BJP nominee following a brief stint with the Congress during which he lost on its ticket from the Hubballi Central Assembly seat in the 2023 polls.

About half a dozen relatives of the Congress ministers and leaders – including Kharge’s son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani – are in the fray on the Congress tickets, with the party depending on the implementation of its 2023 poll guarantees to deliver the electoral dividends.

“In both phases of the polls the guarantees have had an impact on the people. This is because all the guarantees have been implemented within eight months of our government coming to power. People have a sense of belief and confidence in the guarantees,” Siddaramaiah said.

“We will win all five seats in the Kalyana Karnataka region (Hyderabad Karnataka),” state Congress chief D K Shivakumar said.

In 2019, the Congress had won just one of the state’s 28 seats as against the BJP’s 25. The party is however claiming that it would win most of the seats this time.

Karnataka has a tradition of the party in power bagging a majority of the seats, barring 1983 and 1998 as well as 2014 and 2019 amid the Modi wave.

Currently, several BJP veterans are in contention in the second phase, including Anna Saheb Jolle from Chikodi, P C Gaddigoudar from Bagalkot and Ramesh Jigjinagi from Bijapur.

In Hubballi-Dharwad, four-time BJP MP and Union minister Pralhad Joshi is taking on young Congress leader Vinod Asooti. The BJP’s campaign over the Neha Hiremath murder case is likely to help Joshi clinch a fifth term despite anti-incumbency.

PM Modi himself campaigned in Karnataka for the second phase only on two days covering five constituencies – Belagavi, Uttara Kannada, Davangere and Ballari on April 28 and Bagalkot on April 29.